Thank You, American Legion

Thank you, American Legion for the fine time I had as a kid playing American Legion baseball, learning how to make government work at Boys State, and using the scholarship you gave me with the Americanism Award to start my trek through college and graduate schools. More recently thanks for recognizing that ten of the thirteen Smokejumpers killed in the Mann Gulch Firefighting tragedy 75 years ago were World War II military veterans. Partly because of Mann Gulch there now exist ten Standard Firefighting Orders. You can get a clear idea of how and why that happened by listening to Norman Maclean’s book, Young Men and Fire, at johnbdriscoll.blogspot.com I want to draw your attention to six of the orders: #7. Quickly recognize changed conditions and immediately revise plans to handle. In Montana’s Eastern Congressional Disctrict we have 150 Minuteman III nuclear missiles in underground silos and have entered in an unstable nuclear war fighting environment. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has forced us to abandon the Theater Nuclear Forces Treaty to distribute nuclear weapons among NATO allies, while he has been ignoring the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and is forming military alliances with China and North Korea. Without either of them he already has enough nuclear warheads and launch vehicles to overwhelm the “sponge defense,” expected to be performed by the nuclear missiles here in Montana. We’re not able to read Putin’s intentions and there still is no natural firebreak between tactical nuclear weapons and strategic nuclear weapons. With the 2-year delay in the start date of Minuteman III modernization we need to know if our National leaders are using the delay to revise nuclear war-fighting plans for a dramatically changed situation. #4. Have an escape plan in mind in case of a blowup. While we are waiting to learn of any changes it seems wise for eastern Montanans to have their own escape plans in mind by using the “BlastSim” cell-phone application. Locate on its map the nearest nuclear missile silos, control centers and wing headquarters and plot the escape route you and your family would likely travel. Detonate at least a 1KT warhead on each missile silo and control center, and something larger on Malmstrom Air Force Base. Then plot routes around the fireballs and blast radii, allowing for changing wind. This should be as fun for the kids as it was for us when we used to scan the northern skies for Russian Bear bombers, using Ground Observer Corps aircraft recognition cards. #1. Keep informed on fire weather conditions and forecasts. #2. Know what your fire is doing at all times. #3. Base all actions on current and expected fire behavior. We have been hospitable neighbors to the nuclear missiles, but, unlike the people in Gaza, in America we must expect to be informed about current nuclear war-fighting conditions and changes in strategy. If our nation’s leaders decide the Minuteman/Sentinel still has a cost-effective role to play, then as your Congressman I’ll be asking that the U.S. Air Force accompany these missiles on our land with a fire behavior model similar to the fire behavior models used by the U.S. Forest Service since the Mann Gulch Fire. No one wins a nuclear war and, right now, Montanans are sure to lose more than most. Fire behavior modeling will improve our survival in an attack. If our nation’s leaders decide the ground-based leg of our nuclear Triad might serve a higher purpose in exchange for a long-term multinational nuclear arms control treaty, then as your Congressman I’ll be asking the U.S. Air Force to share all of its soils and geology information about the Western Inland Seabed with the Montana School of Mines, as part of a peaceful effort to combat Climate Change by safely disposing of High Level Nuclear Waste. And lastly, #8. Post a lookout for dangerous situations. If you vote for me I’ll be your lookout in Washington for dangerous situations here.

Confronting Climate Change

Since the late 1980’s when I first participated in discussions at the Electric Power Research Institute about National Academy of Sciences reports on human-caused Global Warming, I’ve known climate change to be an undeniable reality. Today I’m suggesting a response for us here in Montana that will preserve and create jobs to support our communities and families. The process will start this summer with a July 16 scoping of the Environmental Impact of the modular nuclear electricity generating plant under construction in Kemmerer, Wyoming and publication of a new National Electricity Transmission Plan to move clean electricity to where it’s needed. Moving electricity from where it’s generated to where it’s needed is a complex endeavor. Right now electricity moves across Montana, north and south, east and west. Going west the lines are jammed and going east there’s a frequency change seam, roughly a line south from Fort Peck Dam to Miles City, where the Alternating Current (AC) of our western states’ network comes up against the AC of the rest of our mid-continental states, except for Texas. This requires changing to Direct Current (DC) and then back to a different AC frequency. The U.S. Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) AC-DC-AC inter-tie is tucked below Signal Butte next to the interstate. That inter-tie can move 200 Megawatts (MW) west or 150 to 200 MW east. The generating facilities at the Bureau of Reclamation’s 250 MW Yellowtail Dam can move either way across the seam, as might the generating facilities at the Army Corps of Engineers 185 MW Fort Peck Dam if the electricity transmission lines were not so constrained in either direction. There is a new 525 MW High Voltage DC line by an independent developer out of Houston,Texas being planned to span 415 miles east to Center, North Dakota, from Colstrip, Montana. As your your Congressional Representatve I’d work with WAPA, which owns 17,293 miles of transmission lines and 57 power plants serving 613 long-term firm customers, to extend and upgrade the WAPA power line from both sides of Fort Peck Dam to the Bonneville Power Administration Con Kelley Sub Station at Columbia Falls, and upgrade transmission on both sides of the WAPA inter-tie west from Miles City. The Hi-line would be to collect wind energy from along the Canadian Border and to electrify the BNSF railroad from the North Dakota Border to as far west as Seattle-Tacoma. Additional required electricity in 345 MW increments could come from WAPA-owned Modular Nuclear Plants at Miles City, transmitting east or west. Causing the railroad to electrify might happen by ending the automatic pass through of diesel fuel costs, but I would like to work in a more coordinated way with BNSF representatives. The nature of electricity is such that it forces people to sit down and talk to each other about their respective piece of a complex machine operating at the speed of light. If we do that we could be successful. Should any or all of the five petroleum refineries now processing 220,000 barrels of oil daily along the rail line at Billings, Laurel and Great Falls choose to manufacture hydrogen, I would sit down with them and do my best to assist making the necessary changes. Since high temperature electrolysis is 23 percent more energy efficient it’s likely that modular nuclear reactors or solar concentrating towers would be located at or near the refineries. Since a nuclear plant is already being planned for construction in Wyoming, I already am encouraging a high-level nuclear waste repository to be located in Montanac certainly for at least the waste from Montana plants. It would track closely with the first repository in world history, expected to be opened this summer, at Oakala, Finland, to safely store for 100,000 years the operating life waste of five nuclear plants. Forbes magazine just predicted, “Four million rail cars full of coal and 70,000 rail cars full of oil are going to disappear from America’s railroad tracks,” which could, but doesn’t have to, mean the dissappearance of jobs. It’s time to break out the history books. My seat mate in the Legislature, Joe Brand, was a Milwaukee locomotive engineer, and a fellow Butte story-teller, Kevin Shannon, worked his entire life for the Butte, Anaconda and Pacific Railroad. Both were strong union men and both swore by the far greater ooerational efficiency of electrified railroads over oil-fired diesel-electric. If Montana’s five oil refineries change over to making hydrogen the railroad will be in position to repurpose rail tanker cars for hauling water for electrolysis and returning salt brine to the sea. The modular nuclear plant, once licensed will cost far less, and if built by a federal entity like WAPA, with a high debt ratio, will charge ratepayers less than half the rates of an investor-owned utility. New electricity plants, high temperature nuclear or solar processing plants, an electrified railroad and a high level nuclear waste disposal facility translate to good long-term jobs for a trained workforce force, high-paying union jobs. I’ll appreciate a good word from you to your friends.

Compassion, The Heart of the Matter

The Charter of Compassion, consists of four principals that grew out of an international gathering of Spiritual Leaders. The principle of compassion lies at the heart of all religious, ethical and spiritual traditions, calling us always to treat all others as we wish to be treated ourselves. Compassion impels us to work tirelessly to alleviate the suffering of all our creatures, to dethrone ourselves from the center of our world and put another there, and to honor the inviolable sanctity of every single human being, treating everybody, without exception, with absolute justice, equity and respect. On February 28, 2008, scholar and author Karen Armstrong won the TED Prize. In her acceptance speech she called for help in creating, launching and propagating a Charter for Compassion, claiming to be based on the fundamental principle of the Golden Rule. An open writing process to create the Charter began in November 2008 with the launch of the Charter for Compassion website. People of all faiths, nationalities and backgrounds submitted ideas on what the Charter should include. Individuals from more than 100 countries added their voices to this process and their submissions were read and commented upon by more than 150,000 visitors to the site.

Minuteman III Missile Modernization Slips Two Years

WASHINGTON — A first flight of the Air Force’s intended replacement for its nuclear-armed Minuteman III ballistic missile fleet has slipped by over two years, the Air Force confirmed today to Breaking Defense — likely adding scrutiny to one of the Pentagon’s most expensive projects that also recently suffered a “critical” cost breach. Previous budget documents showed that the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM program planned to carry out its first flight test in December 2023. As recently as February 2023 an Air Force official said the flight test remained “on track.” But that test has not yet taken place, and the fiscal year 2025 documents now indicate that the missile isn’t planned to fly until February 2026. In a statement to Breaking Defense today, an Air Force spokesperson confirmed the significant schedule slip, saying that “Sentinel’s first flight test was delayed due to increased lead times for guidance computer components.” “While first flight will occur later than initially planned, it is not on the critical path,” they added. “The Air Force and OSD [Office of the Secretary of Defense] continue to work closely together to identify and implement options to reduce risk and optimize schedule.” As the spokesperson’s comments reflect, the Sentinel’s current schedule is somewhat in flux as Air Force officials reassess the program in the wake of a Nunn-McCurdy cost breach disclosed in January. That breach mandated that the Air Force and OSD identify the root causes of a program price jump of 37 percent to a new total of over $130 billion and to probe a potential two-year delay to the missile’s planned initial operational capability, previously pegged for 2029. That review is expected to conclude this summer. Today the Air Force spokesperson said that “[e]arly estimates indicate that a large portion of the Sentinel program’s cost growth is in the Command and Launch segment, which is the most complex segment of the Sentinel program.” Officials have said the missile itself is not a primary cause of the cost growth. “While first flight will occur later than initially planned, it is not on the critical path,” they added. “The Air Force and OSD [Office of the Secretary of Defense] continue to work closely together to identify and implement options to reduce risk and optimize schedule.” As the spokesperson’s comments reflect, the Sentinel’s current schedule is somewhat in flux as Air Force officials reassess the program in the wake of a Nunn-McCurdy cost breach disclosed in January. That breach mandated that the Air Force and OSD identify the root causes of a program price jump of 37 percent to a new total of over $130 billion and to probe a potential two-year delay to the missile’s planned initial operational capability, previously pegged for 2029. That review is expected to conclude this summer. Today the Air Force spokesperson said that “[e]arly estimates indicate that a large portion of the Sentinel program’s cost growth is in the Command and Launch segment, which is the most complex segment of the Sentinel program.” Officials have said the missile itself is not a primary cause of the cost growth. The spokesperson’s comments came after the primary contractor on Sentinel, Northrop Grumman, provided a briefing to reporters earlier this week to defend the program. A company official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the government, rather than Northrop, established what turned out to be imprecise initial estimated costs during an earlier stage when the program was still competitive, and the company so far has only bid on the EMD phase. Northrop was awarded the $13.3 billion EMD contract in September 2020 after the cost estimate was completed, the official said. Since then, new costly factors have arisen, the official said. For example, missile silo designs “have changed since the original concepts that were discussed” during early stages of the program “and even at the beginning of the EMD phase.” The official also said that the program originally expected that Sentinel could “reuse almost all of the existing cabling” wired to the Minuteman III fleet. New, fiber optic cabling will now be required to support the program, which the Northrop official said “represents a whole lot of new work that wasn’t originally part of the plan” — an issue further complicated by factors like the thousands of miles of cabling that will be required, which in turn can only be laid in by negotiating easements with private landowners. The Northrop official indicated more unwelcome discoveries could lay ahead as work continues, which is not stopping despite the ongoing cost breach review. Through the program, the Air Force is currently planning on refurbishing 450 Minuteman III silos to house Sentinel missiles in their place, but only a “handful” of lidar scans have been conducted to date to assess their condition. Additionally, there hasn’t been much “destructive testing” to assess factors related to the silos’ concrete walls. Northrop built its own mock Minuteman III silo using internal dollars to help mitigate potential risk, but the step may not be representative of every one of the hundreds of silos scattered across the Great Plains. And though the company was given access to data from decommissioned silos, Northrop will not get data for live silos slated for refurbishment until around when the work is supposed to start, the company official said. The limited ability to do evaluations means there is “certainly the potential that when they get to investigating more of the silos, they may find that some of them might not be possible [to use],” the official said. Northrop’s “main construction partner” is Bechtel, the official said, adding that Clark Construction is serving an advisory role. Proponents of the Sentinel program say that the newly-revised costs are justified, whereas opponents point to the price spike as a reason to explore alternatives. Highlighting the estimated cost of the Navy’s Columbia submarine program, whose pricetag for 12 subs would be roughly equal to the revised cost of the Sentinel program, the Northrop official argued that Sentinel is a “relatively affordable” piece of the nuclear triad. The Northrop official emphasized the enormous complexity of the Sentinel endeavor, repeating sentiments from Air Force leaders that the program is essentially composed of multiple major acquisition efforts – such as the missiles, silos, launch centers and other components — rolled into one. And as officials search for accountability in the large cost increase to be borne by taxpayers, the Northrop official was reluctant to lay blame. “Looking for that blame, I think, is hard because it really was just an immense challenge,” they said. It’s unclear if such a sentiment would satisfy some lawmakers, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who grilled US Strategic Command chief Gen. Anthony Cotton earlier this month over Sentinel’s troubles. “… [W]e have to have a plan here that is actually going to work,” Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, said on March 4. “We can’t just keep burning money and say, ‘At some point we hope we will be able to deliver this thing.'”

Thank You

A River Runs Through It